Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-11 0.009548 0.010767 0.012086 0.013618 0.015351 0.017250 0.019491
2026-01-18 0.007504 0.009153 0.011083 0.013511 0.016489 0.020028 0.024561
2026-01-25 0.006380 0.008215 0.010484 0.013500 0.017414 0.022336 0.029014
2026-02-01 0.005505 0.007407 0.009865 0.013284 0.017930 0.024047 0.032750
2026-02-08 0.004941 0.006906 0.009545 0.013361 0.018761 0.026164 0.037141
2026-02-15 0.004427 0.006401 0.009144 0.013251 0.019275 0.027835 0.041011
2026-02-22 0.004119 0.006142 0.009044 0.013532 0.020335 0.030331 0.046256
2026-03-01 0.003664 0.005620 0.008506 0.013101 0.020280 0.031152 0.049024
2026-03-08 0.003320 0.005228 0.008119 0.012849 0.020452 0.032297 0.052354
2026-03-15 0.003000 0.004842 0.007703 0.012505 0.020431 0.033116 0.055199
2026-03-22 0.002886 0.004770 0.007771 0.012933 0.021678 0.036046 0.061753
2026-03-29 0.002754 0.004657 0.007757 0.013218 0.022702 0.038678 0.068015
2026-04-05 0.002634 0.004556 0.007761 0.013543 0.023836 0.041614 0.075130
2026-04-12 0.002449 0.004329 0.007533 0.013447 0.024225 0.043296 0.080160
2026-04-19 0.002297 0.004146 0.007364 0.013436 0.024757 0.045259 0.085865
2026-04-26 0.002129 0.003918 0.007097 0.013220 0.024891 0.046495 0.090293
2026-05-03 0.002018 0.003788 0.006994 0.013297 0.025572 0.048795 0.096965
2026-05-10 0.001892 0.003617 0.006802 0.013187 0.025879 0.050401 0.102393
2026-05-17 0.001826 0.003556 0.006812 0.013467 0.026969 0.053604 0.111335
2026-05-24 0.001679 0.003325 0.006477 0.013038 0.026602 0.053880 0.114219
2026-05-31 0.001565 0.003152 0.006242 0.012788 0.026575 0.054833 0.118604
2026-06-07 0.001450 0.002968 0.005972 0.012446 0.026327 0.055303 0.121976
2026-06-14 0.001425 0.002965 0.006067 0.012871 0.027737 0.059370 0.133650